Mortality

Observations on Mortality Improvement - A Comparison of Nations
Over the last half of the 20th Century, populations – both general and insured – experienced significant…
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Mortality Experience – The Funnel Effect
In analyzing client mortality studies over the years, I noticed that companies with very similar underwriting practices,…
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Watch Your (Contestable) Step!
Policy contestable clauses allow insurers to balance the consumer’s need for quicker policy issue with the insurer’s…
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Mortality Improvement in the Elderly Population
  Population mortality rates for the extreme elderly have improved significantly in the last decade compared to…
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SCOR’s Mortality Research Means Business
SCOR researchers continuously capture and analyze experience data to advance our understanding of mortality risk. Our research…
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Insured Mortality Improvement in the 21st Century – Is It Real?
A recent Society of Actuaries (SOA) life insurance experience study indicated that from 2003 to 2007, overall…
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The Role of Suicides in Trauma Claims
During the Great Depression of the 1930s, one heard anecdotally that suicide rates increased during the peak…
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Causes of Death Shed Light on Mortality – Part 2
Analyzing insured mortality by cause of death (COD) often provides insights that a typical actual-to-expected study may…
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Causes of Death Study - Part I
Analyzing insured mortality by cause of death (COD) often provides insights that a typical actual-to-expected study may…
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Black Swans and Mortality Risk
In The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Nassim Taleb explains the realm of the…
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Over-Using Life Expectancy
Individual life insurance is a voluntary purchase decision and for it to remain a viable product, insureds…
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Mis-Measures of Mortality
Individual life insurance is a voluntary purchase decision, and it is a tough sell even when the…
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The SOA Mortality Model - Putting It to the Test
As part of the recently released 2008 VBT mortality tables, the Society of Actuaries introduced a theoretical…
The Effect of the Contestable Period on Experience Analysis
In developing mortality rates, actuaries smoothly increase rates by age and duration. We accept that some anomalies…
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Older Age Issues: Initial Selection Effects Fade Fast
It is time for both reinsurers and direct writing companies to take a hard look at their…
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The Contestable Blip
Life insurance pricing is a rich interplay of various factors and assumptions, including lapse rates, expenses, mortality…
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Modelling

US Mortality Improvement - Analysis Methodology
Mortality improvement factors play an important role in pricing traditional products issued by life insurers, such as…
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Stochastic Modeling Is on the Rise – Part 1
Stochastic modeling is on the rise in the life insurance industry due to a coalescence of regulations…
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Logistic Regression for Insured Mortality Experience Studies
Findings of industry mortality experience studies are used by (re)insurers and regulators as the basis for developing…
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System Peer Review: A Missing Link in the Evolution of Actuarial Modeling
As the industry continues to progress from a formula-based to a principles-based approach to capital and reserves,…
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The Value of Logistic Regression in Mortality Table Construction
SCOR regularly reviews its mortality pricing tables to ensure that they are the most up-to-date, accurate and…
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Techniques to Enhance Views of Future Mortality Trends
Estimating future trends in mortality plays a significant part in life (re)insurers’ product development and portfolio valuation.…
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Sampling Theory and Audit Confidence

Sampling Theory and Audit Confidence

Life > Mortality
12/2010
One function of the underwriting staff at Transamerica Reinsurance is to perform audits of our clients’ recently…
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Useful Tools for Assessing Claims Fluctuation
A case in point is year-to-year death claims analysis – where actual claims often deviate from expected.…
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Non-Traditional Mortality Studies

Non-Traditional Mortality Studies

Life > Mortality
04/2010
Using the Social Security Administration’s Death Master File (DMF) provides the opportunity to perform nontraditional mortality studies…
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Mortality Study Trend Analysis

Mortality Study Trend Analysis

Life > Mortality
06/2007
Reviewing emerging mortality experience has always been important to assessing overall product performance and profitability. While data…
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Mortality Study Trend Analysis - Part III
Modern mortality theory presumes that preferred insureds will exhibit lower mortality than their non-preferred counterparts. In Part…
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Mortality Study Trend Analysis - Part II

Mortality Study Trend Analysis - Part II

Life > Mortality
03/2007
When reviewing mortality study experience, it is important to assess not only the overall level of mortality…
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Mortality Study Trend Analysis - Part I

Mortality Study Trend Analysis - Part I

Life > Mortality
12/2006
When reviewing mortality study experience, it is important to assess not only the overall level of mortality…
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Credibility Theory

Credibility Adjusted Experience

Credibility Adjusted Experience

Life > Mortality
10/2010
Actuaries occasionally encounter inconsistencies in mortality experience that cannot be explained by typical causes of fluctuation (i.e.,…
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Credibility Analysis for Mortality Experience, Part 3
What actions should a pricing actuary take when a mortality study is deemed less than fully credible?…
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Credibility Analysis for Mortality Experience Studies, Part 2
Contrary to common misunderstanding, the credibility assigned to a mortality study has nothing to do with quality…
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Credibility Analysis for Mortality Experience Studies, Part 1
The bane of pricing actuaries is thier desire for more and more data in a preferred risk…
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Seriatim Reporting Adds Value to Insurer Pricing
A few years ago a client requested a quote for YRT reinsurance coverage. They presented their mortality…
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Mortality by Band: An Update
SCOR constantly monitors mortality experience by band. A few years ago we took a close look at…
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The Growing Influence of Lab Scoring in Underwriting Mortality Risk
Labs serve an essential role in life insurance underwriting by providing information about relevant medical markers in…
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Seasoned Expert Shares Observations on Pricing & Selecting Mortality Risk
Many life insurers have adopted technology as the path to more efficient and effective risk selection. But…
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Mortality Assumptions: Where Are We Going?
In today’s competitive term life insurance market, direct writers are revisiting their list of pricing assumptions to…
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Courting Older Age Customers
As Baby Boomers approach retirement, the older-age segment of the population is receiving greater interest from life…
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Observations on Mortality by Band
Life insurance companies have long offered premium rates per $1000 of face value that vary by face…
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Interpreting Preferred Class Mortality
In pricing new products, actuaries are often called upon to determine mortality assumptions for preferred risk class…
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This report presents the results of individual life insurance lapse experience in the United States between observation…
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The Society of Actuaries (SOA) sponsored a new experience study examining preneed life insurance mortality. Preneed life…
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This paper uses data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to explore the extent and causes…
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Changes in mortality rates have a significant impact on financial and pension planning. The pricing of financial,…
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High urban mortality delayed transitions to low mortality in 19th century Europe, but an urban mortality advantage…
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(in French only) Life catastrophes become an important concern for insurers this last years, with the increase…
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In Spain, as in other developed countries, significant changes in mortality patterns have occurred during the 20th…
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Stochastic modeling of mortality rates focuses on fitting linear models to logarithmically adjusted mortality data from the…
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Heterogeneity in mortality rates is known to exist in populations, undermining the use of age and sex…
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We estimate life expectancy and average years of life lost (AYLL) after an HIV diagnosis using population-based…
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This article sets out to explore the nature of the connection between health and wealth. It first…
Sex, age, education, marital status, obesity, and smoking have been found to affect health transitions between non-disabled,…
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Winner of the 2007 Life SCOR Actuarial Prize (UK)
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The influence of economic conditions on mortality has been recognized at least since biblical times. Empiricism of…
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En France, la corpulence des femmes comme des hommes a fortement augmenté depuis 1981, avec une accélération…
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Through the past five decades, self-reported  measures of height and weight indicate that obesity, defined as body…
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This volume presents papers from workshops on mortality organized by the Stockholm Committee on Mortality Forecasting. Jim…
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Although obesity is frequently associated with poverty, recent increases in obesity may not occur  disproportionately among the…
The proportion of smokers and the number of cigarettes consumed per person-year in Madrid is above the…
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The paper discusses the impact of longevity extension on aggregate wealth accumulation, accounting for changes in individual…
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This article demonstrates that over the period 1948–2003, sex differences in mortality in the age range 50–84…
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Obesity is grabbing the headlines as a leading cause of premature death as well as having significant…
Rapid developments in genetic science have been accompanied by confusion regarding the predictive power of DNA-based tests…
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Modelling

Predicting life expectancy has become of upmost importance in society. Pension providers, insurance companies, government bodies and…
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Using an extended version of the credit risk model CreditRisk+, we develop a flexible framework with numerous…
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In this paper, we model the mortality rate in Thailand by using the Lee-Carter model. Three classical…
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The gravity model of Dowd et al. (2011) was introduced in order to achieve coherent projections of…
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The Solvency 2 advent and the best-estimate methodology in future cash-flows valuation lead insurers to focus particularly…
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We present a methodology to forecast specific mortality rates and estimate longevity and mortality risks. It is…
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We present a methodology to forecast mortality rates and estimate longevity and mortality risks. The methodology uses…
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Recently, a large number of new mortality models have been proposed to analyse historical mortality rates and…
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Cet article présente un guide pratique du mode opératoire concernant la construction par un organisme d'assurance, d'une…
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When implementing an internal model under the new solvency regimes in Europe, Solvency II and the Swiss…
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Life tables are used to describe the one-year probability of death within a well defined population as…
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Motivated by a recent demographic study establishing a link between macroeconomic fluctuations and the mortality kt index…
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Motivated by a recent demographic study establishing a link between macroeconomic fluctuations and the mortality index kt…
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New solvency regimes in Europe, Solvency II and the Swiss Solvency Test, necessitate the stochastic modeling of…
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Optimal Aging and Death

Life > Mortality
07/2010
This study introduces physiological aging into a simple model of optimal intertemporal consumption. In this endeavor we…
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In this report, Monte Carlo simulations are used to estimate the confidence limits for survival and death…
We analyze age pattern of mortality and incidence of major age-associated diseases (e.g., cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes…
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This article extends Nathan Keyfitz’s research on continuous change in life expectancy over time. A new formula…
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The Lee-Carter method for modeling and forecasting mortality has been shown to work quite well given long…
In this work we have conducted a detailed statistical analysis of mortality improvement for the Canadian population…
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This article introduces actuaries to the concept of ‘‘copulas,’’ a tool for understanding relationships among multivariate outcomes.…
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The first concern of this work is the development of approximations to the distributions of crude mortality…
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Credibility Theory

Credibility Theory Practices

Life > Mortality
11/2009
In the Fall of 2008, the Society of Actuaries (SOA) initiated a research project on the application…
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Credibility Practice Note

Life > Mortality
06/2008
This practice note is intended to provide information on common practices and approaches related to actuarial issues…
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The note exposes general principles and processes applicable to determining an expected mortality assumption. It also provides…
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Buhlmann-Straub credibility is used to find an estimate of the mortality loss ratio for a company, relative…
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The history of insurance company mortality experience is used to estimate the “misestimation risk" and the expected…
The Human Mortality Database (HMD) was created to provide detailed mortality and population data to researchers, students,…
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Resource for mortality modeling and related issues. No longer updated.
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The Society of Actuaries (SOA) is the largest professional organization dedicated to serving 22,000 actuarial members and…
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