CLIMATE ENGINEERING Climate engineering, or geoengineering, involves largescale interventions in Earth’s systems to counteract climate change. Both Solar Radiation Management (SRM) and Greenhouse Gas Removal (GGR) are examples of climate engineering. SRM techniques, like albedo enhancement and stratospheric aerosols, aim to reflect sunlight, while GGR methods, such as afforestation and carbon capture and storage, remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. Short-term weather modifications, like cloud seeding, also fall under climate engineering. There is currently no international legally binding governance framework that regulates climate engineering and many of these methods can be implemented by individual states or actors, potentially impacting neighboring regions and increasing geopolitical risks. For example, China’s cloud seeding could disrupt India’s monsoon season, crucial for agriculture. The downstream impacts of climate engineering are largely unknown and could negatively affect the global and local climate, biodiversity, freshwater resources, and forest cover. Even if they work as intended, pausing or stopping these techniques once implemented might cause new and unanticipated risks. There is also concern that reliance on these methods, which do not address the root causes but only work on the effects, might distract from the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Despite these risks, there are opportunities for SCOR to develop reinsurance products related to renewable energies and new technologies. EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES Emerging Infectious Diseases (EIDs) are new or known diseases with increasing prevalence in a given region or population, driven by factors like quality and availability of healthcare, international travel, urbanization, climate change, and microbial evolution. Historically, diseases like HIV/AIDS, SARS, Ebola, and Covid-19 have shown the significant impact of EIDs. EIDs can drastically alter mortality and morbidity patterns, especially if they are poorly understood, highly contagious, or difficult to treat. They also disproportionally affect individuals with pre-existing health issues. For example, Covid-19 increased mortality rates in cancer patients due to delayed medical care and economic impacts. Early detection relies on global epidemiological surveillance and outbreak modeling. Effective response depends on political efforts, resources, and international collaboration. Both medical and non-medical interventions play a major role in shaping the course of an outbreak. Opportunities for SCOR include leveraging outbreak modeling for better risk assessment and preparedness and knowledge sharing to support prevention and spread of EIDs. SPACE RISK While space has been touted as the new frontier for over 60 years now, the recent increase in commercial space activity has been exponential and relies on a specific type of “real estate”: Lower Earth Orbit (LEO). It is a vital space resource used for global communications, satellitebased weather forecasting, and GPS. Essential infrastructure like aviation, military, and financial systems also rely on LEO satellites. Companies like SpaceX and OneWeb plan to launch satellite “mega-constellations,” to support space services and particularly the provision of global broadband internet coverage. This expansion increases risks, including the risk of collisions with space debris, other satellites, SHINING THE SPOTLIGHT ON EMERGING RISKS Insights into climate engineering, emerging infectious diseases, and space risks In an increasingly interconnected and technologically advanced world, the potential risks we face are evolving rapidly. Among the risks identified in SCOR’s Emerging Risk Radar, climate engineering, emerging infectious diseases, and space risks are worth examining in more detail. Each of these risks poses unique challenges and opportunities, requiring careful consideration and proactive management. 44 ACTIVITY REPORT 2024
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