El Niño 2026: Implications for global catastrophe risk and insured losses

El Niño conditions are expected to strengthen during the second half of 2026 and persist into early 2027, with a high probability of strong or very strong conditions during the peak Atlantic hurricane season. As one of the most influential drivers of global climate variability, El Niño can significantly affect catastrophe risk across multiple regions and perils.

El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity and reduces the likelihood of U.S. hurricane landfalls. However, it does not eliminate tail risk, as a single landfalling hurricane can still generate substantial insured losses during an otherwise quiet season.

Outside the Atlantic, El Niño effects vary substantially by region and peril. Historical evidence indicates higher Western North Pacific typhoon losses and elevated flood risk in parts of the United States and Latin America, alongside drier conditions across Australia and parts of Southeast Asia. Several of these relationships remain uncertain.

This paper takes a look at the implications of El Niño for catastrophe risk and insured losses around the world.